India learns cost of trusting US
(MENAFN) India finds itself at a difficult crossroads as a proposed US Senate bill threatens a 500% tariff on countries importing Russian oil, putting New Delhi’s energy security at risk. With nearly half of India’s oil now coming from Russia, the country may soon be forced to choose between its economic needs and geopolitical alliances.
However, this isn’t necessarily a black-and-white decision. India still has room to maneuver through diplomacy, diversification, and strategic foresight. Its oil trade with Russia has been driven by affordability and supply stability. Since 2022, Russian crude has been priced $7–8 cheaper per barrel than Middle Eastern alternatives, helping India keep inflation in check. From April 2024 to February 2025, India saved approximately $7.9 billion on its oil imports through these purchases, up from $5.1 billion the previous year, according to ICRA data.
But Washington views this through a geopolitical lens. Senator Lindsey Graham’s proposed Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 seeks to globalize American priorities by punishing nations that do not comply with its sanctions on Moscow. For India, strategic autonomy does not mean neutrality; it means making decisions based on long-term national interests rather than external pressure.
While India has avoided public confrontation, officials have been engaging quietly with US lawmakers to explain their rationale for continued Russian oil imports. Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar’s comment that India will “cross that bridge when we come to it” reflects either strategic ambiguity or a deliberate effort to keep diplomatic options open.
India has often bought Russian oil below the G7’s $60 price cap, allowing it to continue using Western shipping and insurance services, while insisting its trade decisions are not bound by unilateral sanctions but by national interest.
However, as the US Senate builds support for the bill, India’s diplomatic flexibility could diminish. Facing potential economic fallout, India may need to strengthen its position through strategic messaging, confidence-building, and careful adjustments, without appearing to yield under pressure. While challenging, India has the diplomatic experience to walk this tightrope.
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