Urban transport shift could cut oil and gas imports up to 57% in six countries

New research from ITDP and UC Davis says electrifying transport and shifting trips to public transit, walking and cycling could sharply reduce oil and gas imports across Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and the U.S. The study argues the move would improve energy security, lower fuel demand and cut exposure to volatile global energy markets by 2050.

Why it matters: - Transforming urban travel could become an energy-security strategy, not just a climate strategy. - The report says countries can reduce exposure to oil-price spikes and supply shocks by cutting how much oil their economies need. - The biggest gains come from pairing vehicle electrification with compact cities and more use of public transport, walking and cycling.

What happened: - The Institute for Transportation and Development Policy, with UC Davis and support from the FIA Foundation, released Compact Cities Electrified: Energy Outlook. - The report examines Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico and the United States. - The analysis looks at four scenarios through 2050: business as usual, accelerated vehicle electrification, accelerated mode shift, and a combination of electrification and mode shift. - The research says the combined approach could cut urban passenger transport energy use by around 70% and liquid fuel demand by 85% by 2050.

The details: - The study says the combined approach could reduce gross oil and gas imports by 11% to 57%, depending on the country. - Across the six countries, that equals about 2.5 billion fewer barrels of oil equivalent imported each year versus business as usual. - Indonesia could cut projected gross oil and gas imports by 57% by 2050. - Brazil could cut imports by 51%. - Mexico could cut imports by 34%. - The United States could cut imports by 30%. - India could cut imports by 17%. - China could cut imports by 11%. - The report says electrification alone is not enough. - The strongest energy-security benefits come when countries also reduce reliance on private cars. - The report says electrification and mode shift reinforce each other. - Battery costs have fallen by more than 90% since the early 2010s, improving the economics of transport electrification. - The report argues governments facing high fuel prices must choose between short-term fuel subsidies and structural investments that reduce fuel demand. - Fuel subsidies can give immediate relief, but they also encourage fossil-fuel use, strain public finances and leave countries exposed to the next price shock. - Investments in electric mobility, public transport, walking, cycling and compact urban development permanently reduce the oil needed to move people and goods. - Previous modeling cited in the analysis says a system of safe, shared electric mobility could save governments $600 billion, cut urban passenger PM2.5 air pollution by 67% and prevent 170,000 road deaths annually by 2050. - The report calls for compact, mixed-use cities, higher-quality public transport, safe walking and cycling networks, management of private car use, faster electrification, more charging infrastructure, aggregated procurement and zero-emission vehicle standards.

Between the lines: - The report’s core argument is that demand reduction matters as much as supply security. - That framing shifts transport policy from a climate or urban-planning issue into a broader economic and geopolitical tool. - The research also suggests the transition is becoming more affordable as battery prices fall.

What's next: - Governments may face more pressure to direct fuel-spending toward transport systems that reduce long-term oil demand. - The report says the most durable protection against the next oil shock is a transport system that needs less oil. - The findings could shape policy debates over urban planning, transit funding, vehicle standards and charging buildout.

The bottom line: - Electrifying cities and changing how people travel could deliver major cuts in oil imports, while also improving air quality, safety and fiscal resilience.