AGP Executive Report

Oil and Fuel Shock: Brent climbed above $114 a barrel as attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure heightened supply fears. The IEA chief warned that global buffers are running low, while refinery disruptions are squeezing supplies of diesel and jet fuel. Gas Security: Indonesia is weighing limits on gas exports as it prioritises domestic needs, a potential concern for regional buyers. India’s Storage Push: China’s Sigenergy plans to invest $250 million in Indian inverter and battery-storage factories, with its first plant targeted for 2027. Malaysia’s Transition: The economy ministry is seeking industry proposals on storage, hydrogen and smart grids to shape its energy roadmap. Coal Expansion: NLC India signed agreements to explore a 3,200 MW coal-fired power plant in Odisha, alongside coal gasification for fertiliser production. Cleaner Gas: Singapore plans a biomethane pilot from 2028, with three power companies set to supply the fuel as a replacement for fossil gas.

Oil Shock: Saudi strikes and an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed crude above $110 a barrel, raising fresh supply fears across Asia. India condemned the attacks after one Indian was killed and three injured in Saudi Arabia. India’s Supply Shift: India’s Gulf oil imports have returned to pre-war levels as Russian crude purchases decline; the US has also become its top LPG supplier, highlighted during Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit. Transition Bottlenecks: Grid delays threaten energy growth, while India reportedly curtailed 378 million units of renewable power. ASEAN’s challenge is turning available capital into bankable clean-energy projects. China’s Power Mix: Beijing is pairing coal plants with renewables as grid pressures grow, underscoring the strain of integrating new power sources. Regional Gas Leverage: Indonesia is weighing limits on gas exports, saying domestic supply is vital to the country’s survival.

Oil Shock: Brent climbed above $110 a barrel as renewed attacks and shipping threats rattled markets; a projectile struck a tanker carrying 21 Indian seafarers in the Strait of Hormuz, with all crew reported safe. India’s Supply Squeeze: Coal stocks at dozens of power plants are critically low as demand rises, while the crude import bill jumped 46% to $90.6 billion in April–September. Energy Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Reliance’s Jamnagar complex put energy security and new-energy investment in focus; the US is now India’s leading LPG supplier. Household Costs: Japan is weighing electricity and city-gas subsidies for January–March as winter bills climb. Clean Energy: India is preparing a major agrivoltaics push, while Australia backed creating a Renewable Energy Commissioner for the Pacific.

India-US Energy Ties: Marco Rubio’s visit to Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery put oil at the centre of talks: Washington wants India to process more Venezuelan crude, while US LPG now supplies 67% of India’s imports. A trade deal is close, but energy diversification remains a key US goal. Oil Supply Risks: Gulf exports have climbed above prewar levels as pipelines and tanker transfers bypass some Strait of Hormuz disruption. Yet attacks, insurance and freight costs keep oil prices high. India’s Power Crunch: Coal shortages are deepening, with 96 power plants reporting critically low stocks as demand rises—underscoring the challenge of keeping electricity reliable. China’s Energy Shift: China’s national carbon market has passed 1 billion tonnes in cumulative trading, while new spot-market rules aim to better integrate renewables and storage into the grid. Regional Supply Links: China and Russia pledged to deepen cooperation in energy resources, while Japan’s oil import costs widened its trade deficit.

Oil Shock: Gulf oil shipments have risen above prewar levels, but Iran’s attacks and continued risks around the Strait of Hormuz are keeping crude above $100 a barrel. Japan: The first-half trade deficit widened to ¥2.81 trillion as imports surged 20.4%, with higher oil costs adding to pressure; Tokyo is considering winter gas and electricity subsidies. India: Coal shortages are worsening, with 96 of 191 plants holding less than three days’ fuel as demand climbs and hydropower falls. During US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit, Washington also pressed for closer energy ties and pitched Venezuelan crude to Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery. China: A fast-growing wind and solar fleet is running up against grid constraints, including weak transmission and limited system flexibility. Australia: Rio Tinto and Rondo Energy have begun design work on a 360 MWh heat battery at the Yarwun alumina refinery, aiming to turn surplus solar power into continuous industrial heat.

India-US Energy Ties: Marco Rubio said India has made “substantial progress” diversifying oil supplies and called a trade deal close to completion. Talks with S. Jaishankar and the UAE foreign minister focused on energy security; Rubio also pitched US energy and Venezuelan crude to Reliance. Supply Risks: Oil topped $110 a barrel as traders weighed Middle East supply threats. Japan’s Idemitsu plans to start selling LNG from outside the Middle East in the early 2030s, while Asian refiners are disputing Saudi Arabia’s 2027 oil contracts. Regional Projects: Woodside halted pre-commissioning at Australia’s Scarborough gas project after Greenpeace activists boarded its platform, risking delays and added costs. In China, a 1GW hybrid solar project combining PV, concentrated solar and thermal storage has begun generating power.

India–US Energy Ties: Marco Rubio and S. Jaishankar are set to discuss energy and critical minerals alongside trade. A US waiver eased the tariff threat over Russian oil purchases, but India’s crude sourcing remains a sensitive issue. Indonesia’s Fuel Bill: Oil and gas import costs jumped 40.2% in the first seven months of 2026, while subsidies and compensation payments rose 52.1% through August to shield consumers. Green Ammonia: ADB and Japan are backing a project to convert an Indian gas-fuelled plant to renewable-powered production, targeting 1.1 million tonnes a year. Regional Supply Pressures: Indonesian supply curbs and winter demand are keeping Asian coal prices elevated; soaring tanker costs are adding an estimated $10–15 per barrel to India’s landed crude bill. Grid and Storage: India and Saudi Arabia reviewed plans for an electricity interconnection, while Australian battery developer Akaysha secured AU$1.75 billion to expand its storage portfolio. China Solar Controls: Beijing has proposed export restrictions on 12 solar manufacturing technologies, with potential implications for regional clean-energy supply chains.

Solar Supply Chains: China has proposed export controls on 12 solar technologies, including know-how for next-generation cells. The move could complicate India’s push to build domestic capacity; the controls are not yet final. Island Renewables: The Maldives signed an MoU with China’s Zhejiang Qingtian for 15 MW of solar and 15 MWh of battery storage, supporting its goal of 33% renewable generation by 2028. India’s Buildout: Juniper commissioned another 65.4 MW of wind capacity, while ACME Solar signed a 300 MW power agreement backed by 1,200 MWh of storage. Power and Fuel Security: Australia plans to require LNG exporters to reserve 20% of gas for domestic use amid supply concerns. In India, power demand rose 11% in September as coal stocks fell 60%; the government has shelved coal imports as high prices and a weak rupee raise costs. New Delhi and Riyadh also reviewed a proposed electricity interconnection.

Green Ammonia: The Asian Development Bank and Japan have signed financing agreements for an Indian plant that will convert a gas-fuelled facility to renewable-powered green ammonia production, with capacity of 1.1 million tonnes a year. It is the first investment under their ACCEL energy-security initiative. Clean-Energy Buildout: Juniper Green Energy commissioned another 65.4 MW of wind capacity in Rajasthan and Gujarat, bringing its project total to 175.35 MW. Separately, Greenzo Energy raised INR 130 crore to expand domestic electrolyser manufacturing and green-hydrogen projects. Solar Supply Chains: China proposed export controls on 12 solar-manufacturing technologies, including processes used for advanced cells, raising concerns for countries building their own production capacity. Gas Security: Australia plans to require LNG exporters to reserve 20% of gas volumes for domestic use to head off shortfalls. Biofuels: India will exclude ethanol made from sugarcane juice, syrup and B-heavy molasses from its next procurement tender, preserving cane for sugar production amid concerns about supply.

Oil Shock: Brent crude climbed to $110 a barrel as Strait of Hormuz attacks and shipping risks stoked fears of tighter global supplies, raising pressure on fuel-importing economies across Asia. China’s Solar Supply Chain: Beijing proposed export controls on 12 solar-manufacturing technologies, a move that could reshape global clean-energy supply chains and complicate expansion plans abroad. Australia’s Gas Policy: Canberra’s plan to reserve up to 20% of LNG exports for domestic users from 2028 is drawing concern from major Asian buyers, including Japan and South Korea, over the terms for expiring contracts. India and Russian Oil: Washington’s temporary waiver of threatened penalties on Russian-energy buyers gives Indian refiners breathing room, but analysts warn the reprieve leaves uncertainty over future US pressure; India’s Russian crude imports fell 13% in September amid higher prices. Investment and Demand: Engie plans to invest €3 billion in India by 2030 to expand renewables and storage, while ASEAN energy demand is projected to reach four times current levels by 2060.

Oil Security: Brent crude touched $110 a barrel as attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz intensified supply fears. Trump’s 60-day waiver on Russia-related sanctions and tariffs gives India temporary relief, but leaves uncertainty over Russian crude purchases. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is due in India, including a visit to the Jamnagar refinery, with energy cooperation on the agenda. Solar Supply Chains: China has proposed export controls on 12 solar-manufacturing technologies, including some used for advanced cells and wafers, raising concerns for countries seeking to build domestic industries. India’s Ethanol Shift: A new tender seeks about 11 billion litres for petrol blending but excludes sugar-based ethanol and cuts the maize incentive, redirecting feedstock as India protects sugar supplies. Australian Gas: A bill would tie LNG export licences to domestic supply, with a 20% obligation and a target of meeting 110% of forecast local demand.

Shipping and Oil Risk: Brent climbed to about $110 a barrel as Middle East tensions threatened supply. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels caught fire after hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz; the claim has not been independently confirmed. India’s Oil Security: President Trump waived threatened tariffs on major buyers of Russian oil, easing immediate pressure on India but leaving the penalties available for future use. Higher energy prices still threaten inflation, while India’s crude import bill has surged. China’s Energy Shift: Plug-in vehicles reached a record 67% of September car sales as internal-combustion sales slumped 49%. In Inner Mongolia, Ulanqab is pairing wind and solar with data centres to meet rising AI power demand. Regional Power: Singapore’s Oct. 26–30 energy week will focus on grid links and new supply as Southeast Asia’s demand grows with AI, data centres and cooling.

Oil Supply Risks: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards say a supertanker carrying more than two million barrels of crude exploded after hitting a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran says is closed. Brent has climbed to about $110 a barrel as regional conflict and attacks on energy infrastructure fuel supply concerns. Russian Oil: Trump waived threatened tariffs and sanctions on major buyers of Russian energy, including India and China. The relief is temporary: Washington can restore the penalties, leaving energy trade exposed to political pressure. India’s Supply: India awarded eight coalbed methane blocks in a push to expand domestic gas production and reduce reliance on imported crude. Essar Oil & Gas won five blocks across three states. Pacific Climate Finance: Ahead of COP31, Pacific nations are pressing for climate funding as a divide over fossil fuels looms. Forecast record El Niño warmth adds urgency for vulnerable island communities.

Household Solar: Anker SOLIX has entered the Philippines with home solar-and-storage systems, pitching a roughly three-year payback as households contend with high power bills, unreliable grids and typhoon risks. India’s Transition: India reached its target of 50% non-fossil installed power capacity five years early, BloombergNEF says, and could exceed 60% by 2028. But power demand remains intense: September’s peak topped 250 GW on most days, reinforcing pressure to add reliable supply. Firm Clean Power: NTPC plans its first commercial deployment of 247Solar’s thermal technology at Rajasthan’s Bhadla Solar Park. Heat storage could keep turbines running for up to 20 hours, testing whether solar thermal can help fill gaps when conventional solar and wind output falls. Hydrogen Push: China approved four-year hydrogen application pilots in five city clusters, covering technology, industrial projects, fuel-cell vehicles and refuelling stations. Supply Security: India says it is widening crude sources and refining capacity amid geopolitical disruption, while attacks on tankers and soaring freight costs underscore the vulnerability of energy routes.

Supply Shock: Crude topped $105 a barrel as Middle East disruptions tightened supplies and pushed oil-shipping costs higher. India has shifted LNG sourcing: Oman overtook the US as its largest supplier in September, with shipments able to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. IEA members are accelerating the release of 100 million barrels from reserves. India’s Clean-Energy Push: India added a record 51 GW of solar capacity in 2025, becoming the world’s second-largest solar market after China. The next challenge is infrastructure: Odisha alone needs about ₹1.1 lakh crore for renewables, storage and transmission over the next decade. Grid and Storage: India’s data-centre capacity could grow from under 2 GW to 24–26 GW, sharpening the need to resolve grid, land and water constraints as renewable capacity expands. China Solar: Major Chinese polysilicon producers are weighing price floors and output cuts to curb oversupply, while solar-cell prices have slipped as overseas demand softens.

Oil-Supply Shock: Shipping a supertanker from the US to Japan is now expected to cost $81 million, about nine times last year’s rate. Conflict-related attacks and insurance costs are also driving up freight rates on routes through Hormuz and the Red Sea, raising pressure on fuel and food prices across import-dependent Asia. IEA members are speeding up the release of 100 million barrels from reserves as supply risks persist. India’s Exposure: Russia, the US and the UAE supplied more than two-thirds of India’s oil imports in August, a record concentration; the higher oil bill is adding to inflation risks. Power-System Buildout: India’s electricity demand is forecast to outpace overall energy demand by 2035, with data centres among the drivers, but grid access, land and water remain hurdles. In Japan, Trina Storage will supply a 196 MWh battery system to support grid-scale storage. China’s Wind Security: Beijing is moving to replace foreign control systems in wind farms, extending its push for domestic technology across the sector.