AGP Executive Report

Middle East Energy Shock: Oil jumped after renewed US-Iran strikes, with markets again pricing higher risk to Strait of Hormuz flows and global inflation pressure. Power Sector Planning: South Africa may extend coal generation as gas replacement projects lag, highlighting how delivery delays can reshape energy transition timelines. Nuclear Deal in Central Asia: Russia agreed to build Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant in a $16.5bn Balkhash project, deepening energy ties and uranium-linked supply leverage. Asia Clean Energy Buildout: Indonesia is backing its first wind energy conversion project in Batam to strengthen offshore wind component fabrication. Battery Rules: China moved to tighten legal oversight of NEV battery recycling as retired volumes are set to exceed 1m tonnes by 2030. Energy Investment Outlook: The IEA’s World Energy Investment report flags a shift toward grids, storage, renewables, nuclear and efficiency, while gas-fired power orders and data-centre demand keep fossil investment relevant. Regional Trade & Energy Security: India and South Korea resumed CEPA upgrade talks, while Philippines-Japan elevated defense cooperation with added focus on energy security. Gas Infrastructure Contracting: Australia’s Worley won a framework deal to support APA’s gas transmission and storage expansion.

Philippines–Japan Energy & Minerals Push: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. told Japan’s parliamentarians the Philippines is moving to a “highest tier” comprehensive strategic partnership as energy supply disruptions and geopolitics bite, with talks expected to include a study on reviewing the Japan–Philippines economic partnership agreement for critical minerals and energy resilience. Quad Energy Security: Australia, India, Japan and the US agreed to build a port in Fiji and signed pacts on critical minerals and Indo-Pacific energy security, aiming to strengthen supply chains amid Middle East shocks. Hormuz Shock Drives Markets: Fresh US strikes on Iran rattled Asia; oil bounced about 2% while investors weighed the risk of Strait of Hormuz disruption and looming US inflation data. Pacific Climate Finance Backlash: Tuvalu’s climate trust fund reportedly invested in coal, gas and a major refinery, prompting calls to review “fossil fuel exposure.” Data Centres vs Clean Power: Greenpeace warned Australia’s data-centre boom could push states toward more gas generation unless renewables and storage additions are enforced. China NEV Safety: China launched 2026 NEV safety hazard inspections, requiring manufacturers to submit risk reviews by Aug 31. Singapore Grid Integration: Singapore’s regulator said Chinese firms could benefit as ASEAN grid integration plans expand, including cross-border green power imports.

Strait of Hormuz Watch: Oil slid as investors weighed fragile US-Iran talks and reports of potential Hormuz shipping restoration, while markets stayed jumpy on renewed strike risk. India FX & Energy Costs: The rupee held near 95.7 per dollar as traders tracked crude moves; Moody’s warned prolonged West Asia disruption could raise credit stress for Indian banks via higher fuel costs. West Asia Risk to Services: LIC’s chief said a longer Middle East crisis could ripple into insurance through weaker incomes and savings. Coal & Power Supply: China formed a probe team into a Shanxi coal mine blast, while India’s Coal India advanced an oversubscription offer-for-sale amid strong demand. Clean Power Finance: CleanMax secured about $575m to build ~1 GW renewables in Rajasthan and Karnataka for corporate buyers. Renewables Transition Funding: UNCTAD said the energy transition needs $1tn+ a year by 2030, with developing economies relying heavily on foreign investment. Hydrogen Mobility: Indian Railways approved a hydrogen fuel-cell trainset pilot on the Jind-Sonipat route. Maritime Batteries: Corvus Energy and BYD Energy Storage expanded a partnership for next-gen zero-emission marine batteries. Philippines-Japan Energy Security Angle: Marcos’ Tokyo visit highlighted Japan’s development support and defense cooperation tied to protecting energy flows. Cebu Waste-to-Energy: Cebu province plans two Japanese waste-to-energy “Green Transformation Parks,” but says funding is the main bottleneck.

Quad Energy Push: Quad foreign ministers in New Delhi unveiled a new Indo-Pacific Energy Security initiative plus a $20bn critical-minerals framework, alongside maritime surveillance and a Fiji port plan—aimed at hardening supply chains and keeping chokepoints covered as Hormuz risk lingers. Hormuz Flow Watch: LNG shipments are inching back: Adnoc’s Umm Al Ashtan has exited Hormuz bound for India, while markets keep swinging on US-Iran ceasefire headlines. BOJ Warning: Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said oil shocks can turn persistent if they feed wages and expectations, keeping rate-hike nerves alive. India Moves to Reduce Fuel Risk: India approved its first hydrogen-powered DEMU for the Jind–Sonipat route, while hydrogen and nuclear capacity stories underline a broader “energy sovereignty” push. Japan Grid Storage: Hyosung won another Japan ESS contract (10MW/40MWh), signaling continued demand for grid flexibility. Regional Governance: Philippines authorities arrested 24 Chinese nationals in Davao over alleged unauthorized work, highlighting ongoing immigration enforcement tied to labor supply.

Quad Energy & Maritime Push: Quad foreign ministers in New Delhi agreed to launch an Indo-Pacific maritime surveillance cooperation plan, expand maritime domain awareness, upgrade Pacific port infrastructure, and roll out an energy security framework—prompting Beijing to warn against “exclusive cliques” and bloc confrontation. Middle East Shock on Supply: With Strait of Hormuz tensions still driving volatility, Japan received a crude tanker (Idemitsu Maru) after a Hormuz crossing, while India continues shifting crude sourcing toward Africa and Latin America. India Grid Stress vs Buffer: India’s heatwave demand tests the system, but Coal India says it has a large coal buffer; Moody’s also flags near-term credit pressure from elevated energy costs. Renewables & Storage Momentum: Sri Lanka’s first commercial-scale BESS has arrived at Colombo Port, while China set a record for solar exports in March. Regional Deals: Uzbekistan and China signed green-energy science cooperation in Xi’an; India and the U.S. signed a critical minerals and rare earth supply agreement.

Quad Momentum: Foreign ministers from Australia, India, Japan and the US meet in New Delhi to revive the Quad’s “concrete actions” agenda, with maritime security and critical minerals back on the table. Energy Shock Watch: Oil is bouncing after a sharp drop below $100, but the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively constrained as US strikes in southern Iran add risk to any interim deal—LNG and crude are still rerouting toward Pakistan and China. Japan–India Energy Security: Jaishankar and Japan’s Motegi agree to coordinate on safe navigation through Hormuz and stable energy/critical-material supply chains. Corporate Moves: TDK is buying Malaysia’s Linergy Power for $241m to scale AI-focused battery capacity, while Singapore’s Pacific Channel acquires ENGIE Factory APAC to expand climate-tech early-stage investing. Regional Climate: Pacific leaders push climate justice and sea-level rise action as energy insecurity tightens across island economies. Markets & Policy: India eyes relief on cotton duties and warns West Asia disruptions could squeeze corporate margins, while Japan prepares a supplementary budget to cushion fuel costs.

Hormuz Hope Hits Markets: US-Iran “deal” chatter pushed crude down hard (WTI near $91, Brent under $98) and lifted global stocks to record highs, while gold and silver jumped as the dollar weakened. India Fuel Pain Persists: Despite four fuel hikes, India’s state oil firms are still losing about ₹600 crore a day; Finance Minister Sitharaman doubled down on the “3 Fs” (fuel, fertilizer, forex) as West Asia risk keeps costs elevated. Shipping Moves Again: A VLCC carrying ~2m barrels of Iraqi oil cleared the Gulf into the Arabian Sea, and an LNG tanker finally exited Hormuz toward Pakistan after weeks of disruption. Energy Transition, Saudi-Style: China’s ZOE Energy will build Saudi Arabia’s first BESS manufacturing plant (18 GWh capacity), aiming to localize storage for Gulf/MENA demand. Regional Deals & Security: Philippines President Marcos’ Japan visit (May 26–29) targets defense, maritime cooperation and energy resilience; Serbia and China signed 23 agreements in Beijing. Corporate Signals: Suzlon’s FY26 profit slipped 6% but deliveries hit record levels, while India’s data centers are forecast to near $46B by 2033 on AI-driven buildouts.

Middle East Oil Shock Watch: Asian markets climbed and oil slid after Trump said US-Iran talks are “proceeding” but he won’t rush a deal—keeping Strait of Hormuz timing uncertain, even as hopes of reopening pressured crude and the dollar. India Retail Fuel Pressure: India’s petrol and diesel jumped again for the fourth time in 11 days; Delhi petrol crossed Rs 100 and diesel hit Rs 95.20, adding fresh inflation and transport-cost strain. China Energy & Safety: China’s north China coal mine gas explosion response continues after 82 deaths and two missing; hospitals report improving critical patients while investigations widen. Shipping Diversion: With Hormuz constrained, LNG and crude tankers are rerouting—an LNG tanker is exiting toward Pakistan while a supertanker carrying Iraqi crude heads to China. Policy Cash Signal: India’s RBI approved a record Rs 2.87 lakh crore dividend to the Centre, boosted by a reduced risk buffer. Clean Energy & Trade: Australia and Japan are deepening energy-security and critical-minerals cooperation as Quad diplomacy and energy-transition partnerships gather pace.

Pakistan–China Battery Push: Pakistan and China agreed to set up a joint working group to explore battery cell manufacturing and advanced energy tech, with visits to CALB in Changzhou highlighting lithium battery platforms and an “integrated new energy ecosystem.” India–US Trade Momentum: US Secy of State Marco Rubio told India it expects to “seal” a trade deal soon, while Jaishankar stressed India’s multi-alignment approach; the visit also keeps the $500bn US-goods pledge in the spotlight amid debate over what’s actually binding. Oil Market Pressure, India’s Shield: India’s fuel demand growth forecast was cut sharply for 2026 as petrol-diesel hikes and conservation measures bite, but BPCL and others insist there’s no shortage—while markets watch RBI’s record ₹2.87 lakh crore dividend transfer and West Asia headlines. China Energy Shock: A gas explosion at a Shanxi coal mine killed at least 90 (with rescue for missing still ongoing), renewing scrutiny of safety lapses. Grid & Storage Theme: US energy storage hit a record-strong Q1 as installations surged, reinforcing the region-wide shift toward resilience as fuel volatility persists.

China Mine Disaster: A gas explosion at the Liushenyu coal mine in Shanxi’s Qinyuan County has killed at least 90 people, with rescue teams still searching for missing miners; the death toll later shifted to 82 as officials revised early counts amid chaotic conditions, while hundreds of emergency workers and medical teams continue operations and authorities say the operator faced “serious” safety violations. US-India Energy Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Prime Minister Modi to push an energy “partnership” aimed at diversifying India’s supply during the West Asia crisis, with Rubio warning the US won’t let Iran “hold the global energy market hostage” and pitching US energy products as a hedge. Quad/Trust Reset: Ex-diplomats call Rubio’s visit a key step to rebuild trust and keep Quad cooperation on track. Regional Energy Risk: The disaster lands as markets stay jittery over Strait of Hormuz tensions, keeping pressure on fuel flows and prices across Asia. Local Governance: Rajasthan moves to curb government-funded foreign travel and push EVs to tighten public spending discipline.

Coal Safety Shock in China: A gas explosion at the Liushenyu coal mine in Shanxi killed at least 90 workers, with 247 underground at the time; hundreds of rescuers are still searching as officials order a “thorough investigation” and strict accountability. US-India Energy & Security Reset: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio began a four-day India trip and met PM Modi, pushing deeper defence and trade ties plus energy diversification, while inviting Modi to the White House. India’s FX Strain: India’s foreign exchange reserves fell by about $8.9bn to $688.8bn amid West Asia-driven pressure. Fuel Cost Pressure in India: India’s state refiners raised petrol and diesel again (third hike in about 10 days), while IndianOil says there’s no nationwide fuel shortage and disruptions are local. Trade Talks with Canada: India’s trade minister Piyush Goyal heads to Canada for free-trade talks and meetings with Mark Carney, with critical minerals and energy in focus. Climate Heat Warning: A study says India’s 2026 heatwave is intensified by human-driven warming, raising the odds of extreme heat.

Hormuz Shock & Oil Prices: The IEA warned the Strait of Hormuz closure could push global oil markets into a “red zone” by July-August, with about 14 million barrels/day effectively off the market, while markets tracked US-Iran peace talk headlines and oil wavered as stocks climbed. India Fuel Pressure: India’s retail fuel pain kept rising—Mumbai petrol neared ₹109/litre and diesel crossed ₹95 after the third hike in 10 days, as rupee weakness and West Asia tensions feed costs. India-US Energy Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio landed in Kolkata for a four-day visit focused on trade, defence, Quad coordination and energy ties, with a Modi meeting on the agenda. China Coal Safety: China reported a Shanxi coal mine gas explosion killing at least 8 and trapping dozens underground as rescue continued. Renewables Push: SM Investments lifted renewable sourcing to 31% in 2025, while China’s Three Gorges set a floating wind record with a 16MW pilot turbine. Big Infrastructure Watch: India’s $9b Great Nicobar megaport plan is advancing amid strategic runway/port buildout and renewed environmental and Indigenous concerns.

US-India Energy Diplomacy: Marco Rubio’s May 23–26 India trip is being framed as a reset with a hard focus on energy security and trade, with stops across Kolkata, Jaipur, Agra and New Delhi and a Quad foreign ministers meeting in the mix. West Asia Shock on Markets: UAE stocks edged up as oil rallied on uncertainty around US-Iran talks, while the Strait of Hormuz remains the key risk lever for prices and supply routes. Indonesia’s Russian Oil Plan Stalls: Jakarta’s headline target to import 150 million barrels of Russian crude this year is running into regulatory and logistics hurdles, with only one cargo reported so far. Grid Pressure in Asia: China expects summer peak demand near a record 1,600 GW amid heat and drought risks; India’s heatwave is pushing power demand to record levels and triggering calls for conservation. Power Investment Push: I Squared Capital launched a $1bn India transmission platform (Cube Grid), and Cambodia is accelerating EV charging rollout with an initial $10m push. Energy Politics Meets Consumer Anger: California Gov. Newsom urged drivers to avoid Chevron over high gas prices, escalating the domestic blame game.

Geopolitics & Energy Pressure: Iran’s uranium stance is keeping oil and Treasury yields jumpy, with markets reacting to shifting headlines on US-Iran talks and Strait of Hormuz risk. China-Russia Pivot: Xi and Putin hailed a “new stage” in ties and extended their friendship treaty, but the big gas pipeline push still looks stalled—another reminder that energy deals are political as much as commercial. US-India Energy Push: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Washington wants to sell India “as much energy as they’ll buy,” pointing to historic US output and possible Venezuelan oil options, as an India-US trade deal nears finalisation. Japan Inflation Watch: Japan’s core inflation slowed to a four-year low in April on subsidies, but analysts warn fuel costs from the Middle East war could re-accelerate prices. Power Demand Reality Check: India’s heatwave is driving record power demand, while Japan and others eye budgets and conservation to blunt energy shocks. Local Efficiency Moves: The Philippines’ DOE is rolling out a Saturday “turn off and unplug” energy-saving push for households. Tech With Energy Implications: Japan unveiled a chip concept aimed at major speed gains without the usual heat limits—coming as AI and data centres intensify electricity demand.

AI Chip Export Fallout: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang says US China chip bans are backfiring—“China has all the chips they need,” and Huawei is “flourishing in our absence,” turning restrictions into a faster tech race. Power Demand Shock: India’s heatwave pushed record peak power demand to 270.73 GW (May 21), with localized outages reported even as the grid met overall supply. Hormuz Watch: Three fully laden VLCCs (including two Chinese) cleared the Strait of Hormuz as Iran allowed more transits—oil prices swung on hopes of easing, but talks remain fragile. Rates vs Oil: India’s rupee pressure and elevated crude risks are feeding rate-hike bets; Indian bond yields ended higher after reports the RBI is weighing options to stabilize FX. Nuclear Momentum: US envoy Sergio Gor says “big things” are ahead for India-US nuclear collaboration, as a US nuclear delegation lands to engage government and industry. Battery & Solar Supply Chain: New deals keep rolling—Novacium’s GEN4 cell LOI for Asia, and a Romanian distributor pact for Chisage ESS—while China’s solar exports to Africa jumped 83% y/y.

Markets & Oil Mood: Asia shares jumped as oil slid and Wall Street’s AI rally steadied risk appetite, while crude rebounded on lingering Iran/Strait of Hormuz uncertainty and inventory-draw chatter. Japan Trade Resilience: Japan’s exports rose for a 8th straight month (+14.8% y/y in April) even as crude imports plunged 64% in volume, underscoring supply re-routing. China-Russia Energy Politics: Putin left Beijing with no breakthrough on the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline; Xi and Putin still pushed “multipolar” alignment and civilian nuclear cooperation talks. India–Italy Energy & Tech Push: Modi and Meloni elevated ties to a “Special Strategic Partnership,” targeting €20bn trade by 2029 and expanding cooperation across energy, defence, AI and critical minerals. US Eyes India Energy Market: Washington signaled more US oil and gas exports to India ahead of Rubio’s visit, aiming to reduce Middle East supply risk. Middle East Solar Pivot: Chinese solar firms are gaining traction in the Gulf, with UAE projects moving toward round-the-clock renewables. Grid & Policy Pressure: Pakistan’s new EV policy drew industry criticism over incentives; Singapore retrenchments continued as energy costs bite.